Monday, April 14, 2014

NIFTY: Great Expectations?

Here is a fantastic background for India 2014, more so for the uninitiated! (Do click)

And now the questions is how much juice left in this rally and which sectors are really overheated. Below a snapshot of the relative performance of different sectors vis-a-vis the benchmark (NIFTY) index. As you can see the rally that started late last august once quite contained. But the pre-election rally (a possibility I noted before) has been, well, fantastic. With all the usual suspects racing away - only Energy, Pharma, FMCG and IT still lagging.

The question is what now. Obviously the pattern of the rally since March shows a lot have been on expectation of a radical shift in policy after the elections are done with. PSU banks, Real Estate, Financials, commodities and energy sectors especially seem to have performed on this expectation. How realistic these expectations are - a few wise words from JP Morgan (via FTAlphaville)

The belief in certain quarters is that as long as the next government were to go all out at de-bottlenecking projects, sentiment would surge and this would spark an investment revival in the economy. However, this appears to be an overly-simplistic read on the situation for at least three reasons.
First, the vast majority of projects are currently stuck because of issues that are under the purview of state governments, over which the central government has little jurisdiction...

They also warn of the circular link between the bank bad loans and stalled infra projects. Do go read the full text. 

One thing is sure, we do have rallied a lot on expectation. Or rather hope. That is not saying we can't rally further. But given the uncertainties of election outcome, the tail risk of hung parliament results may not be a tail risk. That can rattled the market which seem to have priced in too many rosy assumptions

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