Monday, June 29, 2015

European Debt Crisis Redux: The Monday After

Here is how the world market reacted on Monday to the recent development in Greece
It is risk-off but to a moderate degree. As expected, Portugal has been hammered the most.
From now on, it is a question of how the politics play out till coming Sunday. Most probably most European institutions and political leaders will frame the referendum question as a in or out options for Greece. If the Greeks vote for a YES, that will probably lead to a topple for the current government, followed by a hasty coalition to pass through the extension deal, and perhaps an election later on. This is the central scenario. If the vote is NO then brace for the real stuff. According to media reports, a considerable portion of the Greek people are yet to reconcile the fact the staying in the Euro Zone and rejecting the current package is mutually exclusive. How the vote will turn out will depend on this starting numbers, and more crucially 1) how the Greek government pose the referendum question to their people and 2) The reaction of the core politics towards this over rest of this week.
And as usual, Euro is acting quite opposite to general expectation.

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