Tuesday, April 14, 2015

Contrarian: Short EUR to hedge Grexit! Are You Sure?

Sounds rhetorical indeed. But does it? 

Two charts below on EUR/USD vs Italy benchmark 10y yield below. The first one shows YTD move, the second shows the relationship back in 2011-12, during the height of European debt crisis. 

It is true the general yield compression and euro sell off is driven by the same force, i.e. QE. However that does not explain the sustained correlation on the other side as well, i.e. periphery sell off along with euro rally. 

This puts a question-mark to the theory that a Grexit will result in a large euro sell off. It depends what safe assets you buy when you panic. But whatever it is, we will see a large move for sure.

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