Wednesday, January 21, 2015

ECB: The Trillion Euro "Leak"

The last ECB "leak" we had was back in October I think, about a large corporate bond QE program that never happened. Actually could not, as there was not enough to buy!

The latest 1.2 trillion-ish "leak" also sounds a bit like that. The total market size I think around eight and a half trillion for euro area sovereigns. That is roughly 14% of outstanding amount, more if we exclude outstanding interests. On top the distribution is fairly skewed towards lower maturity. That can mean a much higher percentage for eligible securities. All depends on the details. On GDP basis at 10% is similar to US QE though. 

But the sell-off in rates and the moves in EUR/USD today, both cannot be right simultaneously. One of them has to correct. The late rally in European equities also interesting. Reports say energy stocks rallied most. Sounds more like short covering than optimistic rally.

We will know tomorrow.

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