Friday, October 31, 2014

The Most Important Thing Now

Today's BoJ move sets up the tone for the rest of the year (discounting ECB, at max we can get a hint at balance sheet target). Overall, starts a new leg in carry trade and long end out-performance and general out-performance of risky assets. I would say, including European peripheries. Even if you point out risky assets are already very risky, there is not much trigger left for the rest of the year.

Now, the most important question remains. That is the price of crude.

This is not only about headline inflation, it plays an important role by pass-through effect on the core as well, plus help shape the future expectation. 

Till at least the first quarter of 2015, the best rates traders will be the best oil traders!

But there are many unanswered questions - why WTI is in backwardation, while Brent strongly contago. And how much of this represents supply and demand, and how much is carry trade. How the currently cartel will react. And what really is the break-even for US shale. Oversupply, or lack of demand, or just god damn positioning.

Points to ponder!

[EDIT 05-Nov-2014]: Ok, WTI slipped back to contago now. So one less puzzle that is.


  1. FICC desks across banks are shrinking so I'd assume the positioning is much less than it used to be...

  2. well, the physicals, CTAs and other trading houses and hedgies in general usually are much bigger speculators in crude and energy markets than banks, that was even before the recent bank exits