Thursday, April 3, 2014

In Charts: India Under NDA, UPA-I and UPA-II

Presented without much comments

Note on the time periods
1999-2004: The BJP-led NDA government
2004-2009: Indian National Congress-led UPA-I
2009-2014: UPA-II from 2009 till date.

The Growth Story: GDP annual growth. Both suffered external shocks. The recession following dot-com bursts in early 2000s, and the great recession of 2008.

India Shining: The unemployment rate. Well the sharp change in the last figures, may be NREGA? This is just one side of the story. What about productivity? An income guarantee scheme may be good for headline unemployment numbers but not necessarily for the economy, at least structurally. I would say NDA scores.

Fiscal Responsibility: Debt to GDP. UPA scores. But story does not necessarily add up, see the fiscal balance and this chart together. Perhaps we are missing some pieces to the puzzle. Disinvestment incomes saved the day for UPA II? I need to research more on this point.

Twin Deficit Part I: Budget Balance (% GDP). UPA-II has the worst figures, but it also suffered from 2008 financial crisis and its after math (and the fiscal stimulus).

Twin Deficit Part II: Current Account to GDP. NDA scores hands down

The Common Man's Pain: Inflation (Compared to US Inflation - white line). NDA came in power after the peak in 1998. UPA II sees an alarming rise in inflation despite softening of global inflation. NREGA?

Rainy-day Fund: Forex Reserve Growth (YoY). NDA scores, hands down

These are just dumb charts, and incomplete without the story behind them. I do not see a clear winner here. But it seems UPA-II on the whole worse than both NDA and UPA-I

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