Monday, March 10, 2014

NIFTY All Time High - Should You Worry?

Well, after adjusting for inflation or FX, is far cheaper than it was when it hit the similar highs back in 2007. It is cheap in real term (inflation adjusted), in terms of fiat currencies (like USD) or gold

And it is cheap in almost all valuation metrics

Overall, emerging markets investors will be cautious. Irrespective of the softness of data from the US, I do not think we are going to see any stop in taper from the Fed, unless the data is real bad. So staying cautious is always a good idea, but I think no need to go massive short. IMF Direct Blog has a very interesting recent piece out on EM economies (The Trillion Dollar Question). India has probably a much better positions among other emerging market economies with much lower levels of external debt and debt to GDP ratio (although am sure these calculation excludes India's need for oil import, which is more or less inelastic to price, and hence should be treated as obligation and should be added to external debt for most economic purposes). Plus there is a good chance of an upside after the elections in May

I only wonder will that upside come too early and will the market correct after the election results are out

No comments:

Post a Comment